Certain researchers remain optimistic about the possibility of eradicating COVID-19, and they explain why.
- Using historical examples of disease elimination, a new article claims that worldwide eradication of COVID-19 is achievable.
- The article assesses the elements impacting predictability and assigns a score to a few illnesses.
- The authors of the article hope and expect that the international uproar created by COVID-19 would galvanize governments throughout the world toward a global solution.
While wealthier countries struggle to increase vaccination rates, lower-income countries struggle to get adequate vaccine doses, and new SARS-CoV-2 variations develop, a recently published research asserts that worldwide eradication of COVID-19 is still achievable.
Dr. Nick Wilson of the University of Otago in Wellington, New Zealand, the paper’s lead author, told that skepticism over the paper’s findings is understandable:
“[The] attitude is quite natural at the moment, [but] many people were similarly dubious when plans to eradicate smallpox were revealed and there were still millions of cases worldwide each year.”
The report emphasizes COVID-19’s worldwide impact as a chance for a coordinated multinational effort. Establishing robust vaccination coverage and staying abreast of quickly evolving variations are critical to the success of an eradication effort.
The article, titled “We should not exclude the potential of eliminating COVID-19: Comparisons to smallpox and polio,” was published in BMJ Global Health.
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The optimism metrics
The authors define eradications as “[p]ermanent decrease to zero of the global incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a consequence of purposeful efforts; intervention measures are no longer required.”
The article provides the first evaluation of COVID-19’s eradicability by comparing it to other globally endemic illnesses, such as smallpox, which has been eradicated, and polio, for which the only one of three serotypes remains.
The study gathered a total of 17 variables pertaining to vaccine-preventable illnesses using a three-point relative scale for each variable, based on an existing scoring methodology and additional technical, sociopolitical, and economic aspects provided by the authors. Each illness was assigned a score based on these parameters, with higher scores suggesting a better likelihood of eradication.
Medical difficulties
Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, MPH, of the University of California, Los Angeles’s Fielding School of Public Health — who was not involved in the article’s writing — told MNT: “The single greatest impediment to true eradication will be achieving and maintaining the extremely high vaccination coverage (using a vaccine with no or very low infection breakthrough) required to achieve full herd immunity, whereby transcribed viruses are eliminated.”
While Dr. Wilson stated that he is not abandoning efforts to increase vaccine coverage through stronger international public health and social measures, he stated that herd immunity is not a necessity for eradication.
“Smallpox was eliminated without herd immunity, but rather through targeted vaccination approaches,” Dr. Wilson explained. Additionally, nations have eliminated measles without obtaining herd immunity, and for a period, the Americas as a whole eliminated measles.”
Additionally, the report warns that there is a “risk of pandemic viral persistence in non-human animal reservoirs,” a condition that has been observed with COVID-19 in the United States and elsewhere.
When asked if present animal reservoirs may jeopardize an eradication attempt, Dr. Wilson stated that we are not yet there.
“Obviously, if we had a situation where influenza viruses were prevalent in wild birds, eradication would be impossible,” he observed.
He said, “It is feasible to eradicate illnesses in some wild species, such as rabies in wild foxes by aerial bait drops with vaccination (as is done in Western Europe).”
Dr. Kim-Farley identified three major impediments to eradication success.
Dr. Kim-Farley highlighted that while current vaccinations provide good protection against serious disease and death, they still have occasional breakthrough infections that might infect others.
Identifying instances of frequently asymptomatic COVID-19 is also more difficult than it is with smallpox and measles, which are “almost always symptomatic and recognizable,” according to Dr. Kim-Farley.
Finally, there is “a lack of political will to implement (and some individuals’ refusal to accept) stringent public health measures such as mandatory vaccination, mandatory mask-wearing, mandatory quarantine and isolation, and mandatory testing.”
The global political conundrum
When MNT questioned Dr. Wilson if he believes COVID-19 will be eradicated, Dr. Wilson said affirmatively, adding, “Our article focuses mostly on technical problems about eradication feasibility.” The global community’s decision to undertake it will be contingent upon an international expert panel (e.g., at the World Health Organization […] or United Nations level) doing an expert evaluation of the technological, economical, and political feasibility.”
Dr. Wilson expressed worry about “the current fragmented character of global collaboration” and the paper’s description of “vaccine nationalism.”
He is confident, though, that previous eradication efforts would eventually inspire the worldwide population.
Dr. Kim-Farley suggests that “controlling COVID-19 will be feasible if the article’s definition is followed, namely, ‘Control: The reduction of disease incidence, prevalence, morbidity, or mortality to a locally acceptable level as a result of deliberate efforts; continued intervention measures are required to maintain the reduction.’
In any case, Dr. Kim-Farley believes that we should continue to work toward eradicating COVID-19.
“We should recognize that controlling COVID-19 is a worthwhile aim even if true eradication is not achieved,” Dr. Kim-Farley added. “Effective vaccines and appropriate public health measures can significantly reduce serious illness and death caused by COVID-19 to the point where, even if the virus becomes endemic in our societies, it does not inflict a significant toll on our populations through needless suffering, disability, and death.”